Goldman Sachs Lifts Oil Forecast Again: 'Extreme' Inventory Drawdown at Hormuz, $100 Is Ju

Goldman Sachs has once again upgraded its oil price forecast, this time driven by what it calls an "extreme" inventory drawdown triggered by the extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In an April 27 report, analysts noted that the loss of 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude is causing global oil inventories to shrink by a record 11–12 million barrels per day in April. While geopolitics is the headline driver, the real story is that this drawdown is unsustainable—markets may soon face brutal demand destruction, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, will be caught between inflation and slowing growth.  ## How Extreme Is the Drawdown? Goldman estimates a supply deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day this quarter, a sharp reversal from last year's surplus. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blockaded, daily shipments have fallen to near zero. Brent crude has already surged nearly 50% since the conflict began in late February. Analysts warn that if the supply shock persists, the market will need "even more severe demand destruction" to rebalance—meaning oil prices could stay elevated until demand is crushed. ## Price Forecast: $100 Is Just the Starting Point Goldman raised its Brent forecast to $100 for Q2, $93 for Q3, and $90 for Q4. Futures are already trading near $108, extending gains for a sixth straight day. "Consolidation above $100 is where we're headed," said Robert Yawger, director at Mizuho Securities. Traders warn that the longer Hormuz remains shut, the more consumption must adjust to a 10%+ supply drop. A 1-billion-barrel inventory loss is almost certain—more than double the amount released from strategic reserves globally. ## What This Means for Investors Higher oil prices directly fuel inflation, forcing the Fed to stay hawkish—a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. Yet geopolitical turmoil and currency debasement fears could push some capital into Bitcoin as a hedge. The key question: when will oil peak? If the Hormuz standoff drags on, demand destruction will ripple through the global economy, and Bitcoin won't escape unscathed. ## What to Watch Next Peace talks remain stalled, and the strait is still under siege. "A purgatory-like stalemate," as Mona Yacoubian of CSIS describes it. Investors should track two signals: whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the pace of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. If the disruption continues into late June, oil could break $120, putting Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative to a real test. **Bottom line:** $100 oil is just the beginning. Bitcoin investors should brace for both inflation and recession at the same time.