Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing potential risks of being broken in the future.

Google's Quantum Breakthrough Cuts Crypto-Cracking Costs by 20x

Google's quantum AI team just dropped a white paper that has the crypto world on edge. The team, which includes Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake and cryptographer Dan Boneh, proposed a quantum attack that significantly lowers the cost of breaking elliptic curve encryption (ECDLP-256). For safety reasons, Google didn't release the full circuit—just a zero-knowledge proof to show it works.

The quantum circuit they designed needs only about 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits and 70 million to 90 million operations to pull off an attack. That's roughly 20 times less than previous estimates, which ran around 10 million physical qubits. In other words, the quantum threat to blockchain cryptography is getting closer—fast. Google's quantum algorithms lead, Ryan Babbush, and VP Hartmut Neven said they're keeping the circuit details under wraps to avoid handing attackers a ready-made tool.

The research poses potential risks to major blockchains like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The report notes that around 1.7 million bitcoins are sitting in wallets with exposed public keys. Factor in more script types, and that number could hit 2.3 million. Smart contracts and staking systems could also be vulnerable.

Industry reactions have been strong. Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi called the research "very serious." Castle Island Ventures co-founder Nic Carter warned that quantum threats are no longer just theoretical. Google has set a 2029 target to migrate its own systems to post-quantum crypto—a sign the clock is ticking.

The takeaway? As quantum computing gets more powerful, crypto networks need to speed up post-quantum upgrades. Otherwise, the current security model could face systemic challenges. The big question now: Can Bitcoin and Ethereum pull off the critical defense transition before quantum tech matures?