Bitcoin's next big move may depend on the direction of oil prices.

Bitcoin's Next Big Move May Hinge on Oil Prices, Analysts Say

Bitcoin's next major move could depend on where oil heads next, according to some analysts. After the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, oil dropped roughly 15% to below $100 a barrel, and bitcoin bounced back to about $70,900.

Bitfinex analysts said that if crude continues to fall another 15% to 16%, it could pull forward the Fed's rate-cut window, offering structural support for non-yielding risk assets. Meanwhile, the head of Tesseract Group noted that bitcoin is trading around $72,000, and derivatives heatmaps show about $6 billion in leveraged short positions clustered between $72,200 and $73,500. If spot demand pushes price through that zone, a cascade of liquidations could send bitcoin toward $80,000.

But there's a catch. Iranian media reports that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted again. If talks break down, oil could rebound to $120, darkening the outlook for rate cuts once more.