4 Million BTC Are Entering the Long-Term Bucket as the Tradable Float Shrinks

## 4 Million BTC Are Entering the Long-Term Bucket, and the Tradable Float Is Shrinking  On May 13, according to [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/13/bitcoin-s-available-supply-is-shrinking-as-long-term-hoarding-hits-record-4-million-btc), BitGo data cited by Bitfinex shows conviction buyers now hold nearly 4 million BTC, up about 300% since the end of 2025. At roughly $80,000 per coin, that pile is worth just over $320 billion and is roughly one-fifth of the 20.03 million BTC now in circulation. The headline is not just that the number got bigger; it is that more coins are moving into wallets that rarely trade. ## Why the Number Matters More Than the Number Itself Bitcoin still trades like a market where the marginal float matters more than the total supply. Once coins move into low-activity hands, exchange liquidity tightens even if total circulation does not change. Strategy’s 818,869 BTC and roughly $4.6 billion in unrealized gains are a visible example of that absorption. Bitfinex also said the current accumulation wave is the largest two-quarter surge in high-conviction buying since the 2020 COVID-19 crash. ### The methodology is worth checking, but not over-reading BitGo’s conviction-buyers metric is not fully transparent, so the exact count should not be treated like a census. That does not make the signal useless. It means the directional read is more important than the exact figure: a growing share of supply is sitting with low-activity holders instead of frequent traders. The separate estimate of about 5.6 million BTC that has been inactive for more than a decade should stay in a different bucket. ## A 70% Profit Rate Makes the Floor Look Thicker, Not Safe CEX.IO research says nearly 70% of recent buyers are now in profit. That matters because profitable holders usually feel less pressure to sell small pullbacks. Ran Hammer’s comment about borrowing against BTC points to the same mechanism: if holders can finance around their coins, supply leaves circulation more slowly. Mati Greenspan, the market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, said the broader signal is notable.  But profitability is not a moat. If volatility jumps or liquidity thins elsewhere, the same holders who looked patient can become a fresh source of supply. The floor is thicker, but it is not sealed. ## The Three Reverse Signals That Would Weaken the Thesis The next check is not price alone. Three signals matter more: - exchange balances, especially if they keep trending down - the share of recent buyers still in profit - whether treasury and ETF-style accumulation continues to absorb float faster than new supply appears Connor Howe’s point that bitcoin scarcity is moving from theory into market structure fits this frame. The question is not whether scarcity exists. It is whether low-activity holders keep absorbing supply faster than the market finds reasons to release it. If that gap widens, the floor hardens. If it narrows, the scarcity story still exists, but its market impact gets weaker. --- Author: [Alex Chen](https://x.com/AlexC0in) | Alex has followed blockchain technology since 2021, focusing on DeFi and on-chain data analysis Source: [coindesk.com](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/13/bitcoin-s-available-supply-is-shrinking-as-long-term-hoarding-hits-record-4-million-btc)