Bitcoin's $115K Options Bet Is Less One-Sided Than It Looks

## Bitcoin's $115K options headline hides a two-sided positioning test  According to [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-bulls-target-115k-by-december-does-data-back-the-expectation), the Dec. 25 Bitcoin options expiry carries about $6 billion at stake, including $1.85 billion in call open interest at $115,000 or higher. That number is attention-grabbing, but it is better read as a positioning map than as a clean year-end price forecast. The same report says Bitcoin had rebounded 33% from its $60,130 yearly low on Feb. 6. That rebound helped revive upside exposure, yet the structure of the options book still matters: open interest can come from hedges, multi-leg strategies, or cheap tail exposure, not only from directional conviction. ### Three numbers define the factual floor Deribit accounted for 92% of December Bitcoin options open interest, or about $5.5 billion. On that venue, put open interest was 56% smaller than call open interest, which confirms the usual crypto tilt toward upside structures.  The counterweight is still visible. Puts targeting $55,000 or lower represented about $1 billion in open interest, while the $115,000-and-above call bucket stood at $1.85 billion. Cointelegraph's read was that roughly half of the open interest on each side sat in strike ranges that looked remote from current spot levels. #### Why open interest is not a probability table That distinction changes the interpretation. A distant call can be a low-cost way to keep exposure to an extreme upside move; a distant put can be portfolio insurance or part of a spread. Neither line automatically says where professional traders expect Bitcoin to settle on Dec. 25. The reported price of one $120,000 call on Deribit also shows why these tails accumulate. On May 7, exposure equivalent to one Bitcoin above the $120,000 strike cost $2,202, a fraction of spot exposure but with a very different risk profile. ## Downside insurance keeps the bullish story in check The most useful signal is not the $115,000 headline by itself. It is the tension between high-strike calls and the options skew. Cointelegraph cited Deribit six-month delta skew data showing puts trading at a 9% premium to comparable calls, outside the neutral -6% to +6% range. ### A 9% skew premium points to caution, not euphoria If traders were simply extrapolating the rebound, downside insurance would normally cheapen. Instead, puts still carried a premium. That suggests the rally toward the $80,000 area had not removed concern over a sharp drawdown, even while upside tails remained active. This is the key market read: the December book can support bullish narratives without proving that the market has become one-sided. Optimism is present, but it is being priced next to visible demand for protection. ## The verification test is price, volatility and roll behavior before expiry For the next few months, the cleaner framework is to separate three variables. First, spot Bitcoin needs to hold enough altitude for $115,000-plus strikes to move from tail exposure toward live optionality. Second, implied volatility has to stay supported for those options to retain value. Third, traders' roll behavior into later expiries will show whether the year-end structure is being maintained or quietly reduced. ### The risk boundary exists on both ends of the board If Bitcoin stalls while implied volatility falls, high-strike calls can decay quickly even without a dramatic selloff. If price weakens while skew stays elevated, the $55,000-and-lower put bucket becomes more than a remote hedge. The market signal is therefore not a single target. It is a wide distribution of outcomes, with traders paying for exposure at both ends. --- Author: Coinalx Editorial Team｜First published: 2026-05-08 | Last updated: 2026-05-08 Source: [cointelegraph.com](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-bulls-target-115k-by-december-does-data-back-the-expectation)