Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Stop Panic Selling: Is the Worst Over?

Bitcoin's long-term holders have finally stopped selling at a loss. On-chain data shows the SOPR index rebounding from 0.80 to 1.1, meaning this cohort has shifted from panic selling to overall profitability. The probability of Bitcoin dropping to $60,000 in April has subsequently declined.  On the surface, this signals restored confidence among holders. But the real takeaway is this: **diminishing sell pressure combined with sustained ETF inflows is building a structural bottom.** This isn't just a sentiment bounce—it's a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics. ### What the End of Panic Selling Means When the SOPR index is below 1, long-term holders are selling at a loss—a classic bottom signal. Now at 1.1, they are realizing roughly 10% profit, with an average price around $78,000. This implies: - The most panicked phase of selling is over - Holders are no longer rushing to exit, but waiting for higher prices - Fears of a deep drawdown are fading Data confirms this: the probability of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 in April has dropped significantly, and forward predictions for April 2026 also show reduced odds of a major decline. ### Structural Bottom in Sight, But Don't Rush to Buy Spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of $57.98 billion, providing a core buffer against sell pressure. Combined with long-term holders halting sales, the market is consolidating in the $75,000–$79,000 range, forming a relatively stable price zone. But note: **stability does not equal upward momentum.** Trading volume hasn't picked up significantly, indicating the market is still in wait-and-see mode. For traders, the reduced odds of Bitcoin hitting $60,000 mean short positions have less profit potential. ### What Investors Should Watch Next Contrarian traders might still bet on Bitcoin falling back to $60,000, given the low cost of such a bet. But logically, that wager requires a major negative catalyst—such as escalating geopolitical tensions or a sudden regulatory crackdown. The key factor to watch right now is progress on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Any developments there could trigger market volatility. Additionally, macroeconomic data and regulatory announcements remain potential variables. ### Conclusion With long-term holders ending panic selling and ETF inflows continuing, the most dangerous phase for Bitcoin may be behind us. But the market won't move in a straight line—consolidation and oscillation are the new normal. Investors should focus on external catalysts rather than blindly chasing rallies or bottom-fishing. Remember: **bottoms aren't called; they're bought.** When panic selling stops, the bottom is already on its way.