Some analysts predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026.

Rabobank: Fed to Cut Twice in 2026—But Iran War Could Change the Math

The Fed is sticking to its guns—for now. Rabobank's Philip Marey points out that even with higher inflation and growth projections, the FOMC still sees one rate cut in 2026. That suggests they're brushing aside temporary energy spikes. Given how little the war in Iran seems to move the needle, Rabobank now expects two cuts (September and December) instead of three. Their thinking? Once Walsh takes over as chair, he'll push for more. But they also warn: if the Iran conflict escalates, those 2026 cuts could shrink again. The forecast is fragile.