Iran is now deciding who gets to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. On average, it is allowing just

Strait of Hormuz: 400 Tankers Stranded as Iran Picks and Chooses—Only 2 Ships a Day Get Through

The Strait of Hormuz isn't officially closed, but it might as well be. Kpler data shows daily tanker traffic has collapsed from 100 before the conflict to just 2 now. Around 400 vessels are stuck, waiting for Tehran's nod.

JPMorgan analysts say most ships moving through are Iranian. Passage increasingly depends on political alignment with Iran. Some vessels have slipped out by hugging the Iranian coast—an unusual route likely used to verify ownership and let through ships with no U.S. ties. A few, including LPG carriers bound for India, have been cleared after their governments cut deals with Iran.

Before the war, 20% of global crude moved through this chokepoint. Land alternatives? Virtually nonexistent for decades. Trump's calls for allies to step in have gone nowhere. U.S.-promised naval escorts? Still waiting, 18 days in.

UKMTO data: 21 incidents reported around the Gulf and Hormuz since the war started—16 confirmed attacks. The strait is open, but only on Iran's terms.