On Polymarket, the chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by the end of March has dropped to just 2%.

Polymarket Traders See Just 2% Chance of Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Month-End

Hopes for a quick resolution are fading fast. On Polymarket, the probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 has cratered to 2%. The market has seen $355K in 24-hour volume and $24.7 million total—traders are still betting, just not on peace. The odds briefly ticked up earlier, but have slid all month even as volume expands. The consensus? A near-term ceasefire is a long shot.