The IEA has sharply cut its forecast for oil supply growth. It says the war in the Middle East has c

IEA Slashes Oil Supply Forecast: 'Largest Disruption in History' as Hormuz Chokes

The numbers are grim. One day after announcing an emergency stock release, the IEA slashed its 2026 oil supply growth forecast from 2.4 million bpd to just 1.1 million bpd. The reason? The Middle East war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz.

All growth now has to come from outside OPEC+, because Gulf producers are being forced to cut. March supply is expected to crash by 8 million bpd to 98.8 million bpd—the lowest since Q1 2022. The IEA's words: "The Middle East war is causing the largest supply disruption in global oil market history."

Gulf output is already down at least 10 million bpd. If shipping doesn't restart soon, it gets worse.