Is there now a 35% chance of a US stock market crash? Bitcoin is holding above $67,000, but riskier

Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $67K as Global Markets Wobble—But Analysts Warn of Spillover Risk

Global markets are on edge, but Bitcoin is holding its ground—for now. The largest crypto is trading around $67,378, up about 1.1% on the day and roughly flat for the week. Analysts, however, aren't popping champagne. If U.S. stocks take a serious hit, they say crypto could get dragged down with them.

Elsewhere in crypto: Ethereum is up 2.3% to $1,981—still knocking on the door of $2,000. BNB climbed 1.4% to $624. Dogecoin added 1.8% to hit $0.09. Solana is at $83.69, up slightly but still down 1.5% on the week. XRP is hovering near $1.35, off about 1% over the last seven days.

The macro picture is getting messy. S&P 500 futures slid more than 2% in Asia, and the VIX—fear index—is at its highest since April. Oil broke $100. The dollar just had its best week in a year.

Ed Yardeni, a long-time strategist, just bumped his U.S. stock crash probability from 20% to 35%—and slashed the odds of a big rally to just 5%. His take: if oil keeps running, the U.S. gets stuck between inflation and labor market pressure, and the Fed's hands get tied.

History says when fear spikes, investors flee to cash, dollars, and bonds. Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative hasn't held up in those moments—since 2020, it's tended to fall right alongside stocks.

Greg Cipolaro at NYDIG puts numbers on it: about 25% of Bitcoin's moves can be explained by equities. The other 75%? Still crypto-native stuff—adoption, regulation, capital flows. So the link is real, but it's not the whole story.

Global stocks are still shaky. The MSCI World Index dropped 3.7% last week, led by Asia. Korea's market is still nursing a historic two-day plunge. Hedge funds are piling into shorts on U.S. stock ETFs. And with 10-year yields climbing, the market's oil-inflation worry meter is flashing red.