Bitcoin is bouncing back, getting close to $70,000. In the last five days, Bitcoin ETFs have taken i

Bitcoin's Latest Pop to $70K? Mostly Just Shorts Getting Squeezed, Says Enflux

So Bitcoin made another run at $70,000. But according to market maker Enflux, don't read too much into it. They reckon this bounce was driven more by traders covering their short positions and tweaking their portfolios than by any fresh wave of bullish optimism.

That said, there is some real support underneath all this. Institutional money keeps flowing in, with spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in about $1.45 billion in net inflows just over the last five trading days. So that's something.

Look at the on-chain data, the derivatives market, even the prediction markets—they all kinda point to the same thing. Bitcoin's found a bit of a floor for now. But traders aren't exactly popping champagne. They're being cautious, not really betting on a big rally, but also not pricing in another major crash.

Enflux broke it down for CoinDesk. They said this push toward $70k—it was trading around $68,000 at midday in Hong Kong—looks more like a move driven by positioning than by strong belief. Basically, a lot of traders were leaning bearish after all the geopolitical news, and when things didn't immediately blow up, they had to quickly cover their shorts.

Here's how Enflux put it in their note: "The market isn't pricing in a total catastrophe, but it's also not pricing in some neat solution either." They pointed out that over the weekend, a bunch of shorts piled on the Iran news, and Bitcoin ripped up to $63,000. Then, when it became clear tensions weren't about to explode into a full-blown regional war messing with the Gulf and Dubai trade routes, those positions started to reverse. Classic squeeze.

Enflux also made an interesting point about crypto's speed. They said that during geopolitical shocks, crypto tends to react way faster than traditional assets.

Their take? "When bombs start dropping, or sanctions get ramped up, capital looks for the exits. In times of uncertainty, Bitcoin acts like a pressure release valve."

Like we mentioned, that institutional demand is still a big deal. Eric Balchunas over at Bloomberg pointed out on X that Bitcoin ETFs had another big day, pulling in $1.5 billion over the past five sessions. He called it the "boomers to the rescue" moment, noting that almost all of the original ten spot ETFs are seeing action. That's breadth and depth for you. And this is after a 50% drawdown, with most investors still underwater.

So what are the on-chain and derivatives folks saying? Well, Glassnode put out a note saying things are starting to stabilize, but we're not out of the woods yet in terms of confidence.

They pointed out that momentum indicators are picking up a bit. Bitcoin's relative strength index, for example, has crept up to around 41 from 36 last week. But it's still below that neutral 50 level, which is kinda the line in the sand for when bulls are really in control.

The spot market is looking a bit healthier too. Trading volumes have climbed to about $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion the week before. Plus, the balance between buyers and sellers is way more even now, which suggests that aggressive selling we saw earlier is starting to let up.

Over in derivatives land, everyone's still playing it safe. Glassnode notes that the cost of holding long leveraged positions has dropped a lot. And futures trading still shows sellers have the upper hand, meaning leveraged traders are staying pretty wary.

Even the prediction markets are showing that same lack of conviction. The odds of Bitcoin hitting $65,000 in March fell 11 points to 73%. The odds for $60,000 dropped 10 points to 41%. And there's even a Polymarket contract betting on whether Bitcoin will hit $60k before $80k—that one weakened too, falling 12 points to 61%.

Put it all together, and the picture is pretty clear. Bitcoin's found some support for the moment. But traders aren't ready to call a rally, and they're not bracing for a massive sell-off either. They're just... waiting.